Published forecasts · inspectable evidence
What the forecast record shows.
Each forecast retains its original publication provenance and timestamps. Scorecards use stage and model-specific samples with the applicable scoring eligibility.
Immutable forecast version
Publication provenance unknown · 1ca3473e-3bdb-50e2-b55e-d8079c67cb7c
- Model / features
- context-ridge-v2 / context-ridge-v2
- Stage
- pre-weekend
- Generated
- Input cutoff
- Published
- Declared field
- 22 drivers; preserved when later entrants change.
- Model artifact
- context-ridge-v2-2b6f0f166072d4bb
View the originally issued field and outputs ↗
Issued notice & limitations
Published before first practice using the sourced provisional event field. Event substitutions remain possible; changed fields replace the ballot window. The learned model is selected by the recorded evaluation.
Issued finishing-position probabilities
| Driver | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | P6 | P7 | P8 | P9 | P10 | P11 | P12 | P13 | P14 | P15 | P16 | P17 | P18 | P19 | P20 | P21 | P22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 16.0% | 15.8% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Leclerc | 15.0% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Verstappen | 13.5% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lewis Hamilton | 12.8% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Russell | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lando Norris | 9.5% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oscar Piastri | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isack Hadjar | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Lawson | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Arvid Lindblad | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Gasly | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nico Hülkenberg | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Franco Colapinto | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Oliver Bearman | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Esteban Ocon | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Carlos Sainz | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 1.2% |
| Alexander Albon | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 7.1% |
| Fernando Alonso | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 15.4% | 14.0% | 9.7% |
| Lance Stroll | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 15.1% | 19.3% | 19.2% |
| Sergio Pérez | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 14.5% | 21.4% | 26.2% |
| Valtteri Bottas | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 19.8% | 34.6% |
Input sources and hashes
- Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 899d41b1698d24346c948cfa34b5a6ca6878cdbb5fdcea807c9a55d32bb8f95e - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 0789638d66cdd9b472d7e0126e471b9ef1ab1a362409b213079b99cee9777fa3 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 834044fb28b5a62b325a4111cadeeb3397009de35dbcd253d398b454feded7fd - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 2713b0460beef443a66f93df89d48780d49b6213440f1b8cf1a4b33f364118b4 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 215f61501963c457a1268188d5be46837e44bfe1c1df289263ffa24602cd98a6 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 2406406a13544c3ba437cb79fd7c2b2f053247b8c32eaaed5404f88be46aac05 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 5d450cff3ce11b99f00a2463b00283af7d7eb4d14adfdc5453f7e08772a4d40c - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: e8b16f61dffe973465d5c046772a43fd654cf0ec0348fbbfa12d21ac1f754a56 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 81b3ef7538aa41119caac98eb47d8855ea2b69f5a40852588105e50205656a05 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: ccda0a67db44d2134adca9f307cbce91a9d0ab3876120945454060fd8bb901db - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 284849358c73ba8197d881a8eb3556a20506e0fb36912a17315698433c0170f5 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 7856d4fd54d5947f21bc8fd857e501306b4bf68e3291c7cad291bf4a4f898791 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 90e8f7b391f1c568fc2292aa79003e513e7d600cad5dc2d0299ed48748c985a7 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 0bfe0d0b54beb2a4e9eaf358be1aea099edb38ca136deca6840db35522c2d2d5 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 0a36ae883936c27d09f5733f3d9c93707698f8daf846d80f848d7b4e408b3970 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 5b15dc5e07c0d088fa4ad12ceb9a808bc4819ae727ba2476ee4d4c5baab92df0 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 8898f650a85768dc44fd3bb6944bc5510c548f291f9e302a59f8264bad18524b - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 558ce12410dfc30b17bfe9c9f28a336f9e9577a31f18e94b146e3cefb5b2d23f - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: f5752f5b3643fd8ef866b87db06d8f8856a925609c1b5c0e0f3b06b8649e6b12 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: ed234772a3f78314be7de0f7171de1f79a8b28ab7ec282ecfac1be62e2f2f3c7 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 74ea82a7f2f7c931f9e30c94e3057555d6fff081c6f42c83fdd15b07bcd55f03 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 6965bccc6cde9e412d9c631e44ce9b38eab073b314f90c204388800588b3f863 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: e4947871b24941157f8eddc2c64c44d26c1bf4c44d2e66e13732ae869c70329c - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: e31e50ef99bc380444fb813f4724ab96fee4dbbf015d78d922204edab7c254c4 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: ee7475e5b15816c2d0b1fd040d152a4265fa01fd4274d645d3b8c8248e4d23ec - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: d415cd5f18514ec8c26b4846e44093bf8ca4768f2215510382d273f3f87e83b5 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: d4badf468955b85b95b3852b972120c5577e9b665d23f5c6a3f03136b85a4022 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: d71a13afd2e953983250b50e1d59063f02a2e0cf1cc6f7ea59bd29dd801dc7eb - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 282a4713ba44c235853ca13db475186353800131f06cda282a6ecc752a9c9b8a - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 717ad7d6df31ed7a32279152abf773cc3ec7b73dc12623795fa655ad9878104e - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: a5cef386dab8cedce4b5049dbab5426983b4d5678f9f42ef8482137f1578bf06 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: fe70a284c27b53f4cf7cae768fc0c854fad9b949e5f8462090d7b9165668e746 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: bba749e51498e2ecd64cc0686b716df0327f7288d9bb747e7f02570045fffb3c - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 6fd883716f9fededecb67b33449798e55cdce445613d7f6503ade1c69c00427a - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 7bd675955ed8b2a163bf202a639a8daab3480cd111e12f7ef98ef6b2660ca529 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: bf0e5190ad6cfcc2dfc1f356326203f7700a9d995f9175bba90348923b6f4531 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 0b408f377119f31052aab56963533f8ecee1ec4f8194c6d602f5ba44f94eb836 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 4a5eecd335c47c085802f276f692966369e89acf5493bbeeb3adf55bd0db72eb - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 55b8d4b73589c2d6288a1388e0d65525a22e581ac1f4cd2585facf9f073ac9dc - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 26e294de8696cc6f2e92307dbbc993a41719ca86cb61a3494f624fd75d609658 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 028411cd878e6b086393e3773df36f98c9be7dc9be07727408a8e062b36f9616 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 8c9765db38b6fd9ad6a7a8dd9eeeec754863dbb0930df66c42bf8c19aa7fe076 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 4fa4cf971b0c7aa71ae50e712df8826a9c89d1fb51ca785bc5b5abac9e9a0a24 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 1c253042c7d0e598dd228ee00fdb4d070a6f428116e2d9470ed49db863753928 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 60207cb2f2670a12abe17a25cbaa029ed3ac87dd4aa1b1934c7b1ffef9d5cd4e - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 75a5042327460a02cdd864cc99483f689cf48c425f803bd082307424398d2d39 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: aa7b518171ad2120d902f9af198309be1f810082a98b8d0799b52e9a59f56583 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: af4bb28ac388ef520f1076b7b327965a0404dfe54b16ac4efe1c40a3f5469e27 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 4d9009197525ced7361e4d8826acc0379d6398fedff0ae7f6351a26da8b11679 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 17e61f7639d4914bda74b99a1777596221358763b77c6b199c8b6d15fdf4225c - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 1cc54e2714ce1943d3b26046c093d9425df94484004864d907efc87abbfce880 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: b14c410aef5b620f79c78536ab1340b6d8fb39d0d7124785d034fce97177881d - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: e16b4e0c4c344cf7cf8059ddcad26c258a435b2d9b9e89894c4bed948814616f - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: c7f6345eef8dc7033e497c27842fa4c960d0abc05a66b7c81a49518a0ca46bf3 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 08e33404594bb2f151290567d15df628178391abf113394142932dc2cba45fcf - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 94a3f543f28811ebe96ddf7c56708497de534b871365c933b17936196744edf3 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 82fe0fdc9d0f1da7a4edf8aaeeda578bad546bbe399332e6137d370bbd30511c - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 7eba52f8701899e09ecbb240893c7b368a03f699c30e4b3fb36971d19ed1829c - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: a152a4b1297671bc9915cf9749db0063837a87aa66d90f1970664f98290e8492 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 5007b69deccc79562e2298c451841508ffe8e0b44f2e418f78adc12916bded66 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: efe38ee3aba0747b30df76c9399eb365404bb59bf62b115c497814584a782e46 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 8bbd0da6cae0a0bc7f8d2fd0354b4c9664b7632e4c0f3beba3ebb1857e0f6680 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: b97eca9335afc32f68246519a15b997aa897599dff9d255ce82eb84be42066fd - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 37fc473deaa77a9e590a419579365b4e343f7a24f15a5291f3f982117e391a2d - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 9963e95a60ea4235fe9896124a96e119ddb19a31a6a389852afeec314d6c06ac - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 3e589804e958f8e6d242c79a0026bd0f050193362efbe8956f65e60da34f3bfb - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 99507c9414ed70412a98c7104de831774621ae4659e7c45cfd2dc9e41cc8d031 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: f41ccc5b037d1fca4dcb307eef191586c4e85b49adfc65528eb2985fde5687a1 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 1f81a83b3913b5f8ab4a7670eb56acd6df29026a8d7d643befdc188f4abb4b41 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 1ebf36e33727d5b2030aa6dea98e3a2e60af128389fa616c298f245dda423f28 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 7fc1272996f85e663fb3a16ec711f0262c7f8747f22fc743a1f4d697c2cfc4a2 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 53b7646ffc2e0a6030618b624303d4b36cf02fb7d39e14b7d343caaf5be94592 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 1c3bc65ed46164498dc24e7f5a67024f18b8034905c1d492d3f44defad95e9ba - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: e85eb0da7b64126cd1b47ca814640ea2a2f13ffe416606097225caabb8b37ca4 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 5e01076d171dbcbf3d9e48fd92141dbf84403e347051e01d300367bebdd80ad1 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 3ac801783a788121b6709d2f2b004dbf5e546cfbb71659bd23e63a3a53bd651c - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 7d830d424e76a15a02a9e6c6494d55f0559c7f74f6576ef6b50746f96c1d20dc - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: dde237dcd942df17e41a4cbe5c302a87472c4d96b5d0bd54cb535852ffb58724 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: abe264c4f485e2142e8e9aed1e310ab33cffc2db92f11f97bcf20ea7fdbe3ee9 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 3f4f3f1e3425c3f184307481cbf534e1dc4e51b5fd67c2e95a1759b8409be7f8 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 914cb5158609cbdfb218522e40bfd8466c553c5095775caf66ff55d5df0e1011 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 0ee91d0d35cfb526e7e1b2abf31e4c9a4a7dc952eabd9073c056071812eaa28a - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 96605872dd21c80939a5736432505cba116afe8810f432ba3fadaa27a6b75c43 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 8502f21243d6fa02ea3dca1eb6857629d668ad838149119eb532e105a0bf3155 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 9605a87d9c7f134622159f4e7904e42083a2f48782e41b40c860754c1ae426c3 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: feb61361422caa005c9f7078968c9a1e936a58f3c76d0aa69d587fdab694dcda - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: e5f4c56528be47a2702074a015d661dc0436f67c2790f8b053b3fd0395d0ff1f - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 046d6aef97b9bd452a3a1f3fc01b49f9f3b95ba247625ec94c78a796c497a126 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 18c30bb3f3bec0fae9b409dfb16c04448f4b320893b367bd47ce126332171856 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: c8e96ac9ee44fb3cfc6fd480d0cfdb5ee1ffc3381c6f0d02a105a9d3fa6ed668 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 35f3e14597cec5f29ab77ca0b4da76adc5c17126794033626c00e17c07192840 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: c6f5fc42639295064628cc393157f2c01b85b60dd3db2138c3301463ce9bc4a1 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 84f43a407f1d7e7064749706b360a9fafe069cbeb81185d600daf0498a3628c3 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 6011edf120c112f387adfc657de5ab029965d7f15d3ea4c323bb20116aefb084 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 2fe6ed37f8f4e92cf3eddc3e410b53756bfed54edd999be9871298c600957e7b - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 56cee8c93320ec3a88a106e6100ad2428cca1984da340bee8678c80a26cfaa0f - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: cdef17f9b025de0c9adf3a4fb4b7c320764af0a61932c58510523c8b8257cb84 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 68faef13a47248be0f4a45fe37ace01db85440f60b3ea357dda92d8952f1fc29 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: c78b3efd2f8b0c9082f02c2c62cc92f23b855ccb0936ab64713755ff859d49ed - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 6574528ffbd065dce17f5d8921df9e762e8ee95722d5188ab3b2018d0b2dd8a8 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 7fdbba9a7491a82121df013e0a0430c4a11d461385b2e426eb88bfe7ecfae58b - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 0212f06004963a8998b9433c49ee75ae439c08ea97637efbc03723a4583245e2 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 731d1e7799aa8eb425a0b134a3d203e2f2e63386504005744258ebb2a8123941 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 2807e5cf1467e599083621aeb7e55ae83f3fc1c839d569646e9089239f4e12e7 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 3438d6e4b4fd301e7d2dcbfb600cbe9055e87c62781cefcc8aba46e597d9f94d - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: b409adcdad48a2df47e564b14335175ec7c3fabd7e997240312d6bacbca7f40f - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 6e7a9869264e1659e23f7c8472959b9c96924a5b14995d841cac6b99000d17e2 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: eef64dc12f685a0b154d15089f9c390f73dcc0b65a8146a2cb430e016349c7d5 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 3904f07fbebb12f41431283f38c102d68ad1e719156f0254305aabb31edf616b - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 59990428844cc3afaa809e4072f1d94944769eea49d70a9bb416800e39720122 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: a638c14442890492880fd34610c09f3c23b636821bbc9989ded6248800863325 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 02d3075e2ac63f565a4bbcc0d9b0e9e0a0e37fd5ae1820c3bb9e059bd4aa9e7f - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: bfae3ad249a3302c9ed1fb7fcdc7ad9febc9d14c5372986a733eb2fb6b248d4b - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 13abe9ae2dc364b08b23326f5cc4bcd6a324da22e389bd8605ca4f2f8d7b669e - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 66a06b80785027d290094dd9972ce30c30155d0ecfe97790fe5d4c5a89f81963 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: f4a7f26d019cf40e3c94f9f17a119ff010cbce5c511eaff641529a479ed801fe - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: c81ddc93a75603c69bdf4d85565a7262ec803c610b86205b818df45dd1d0a0f4 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: cd88f6250c4e1b186fc903a1e30aff77cedf776994eb3f52c357b1f9bd22341c - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 998e37abbd5c7ee83bcaf2fab1c7b712944b6de2075d3e399a3569edf6cd1161 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 67f14c9fc833391a8e97d860243bbf5a44b25b408d2bdfdc8c95ef4e4b970284 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 0044ccacc1708d605f2d9de93dc883c694deed67ad9e64e7f1e91fa1c52e1e11 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 88872b88a2a31455bd2ccab3143ebef5f78b5a9aa5d1de41b4d63d93b3e3f60e - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: d09a4c92451a04d9d5fa6f71ef7c369cfd288aa6749b7bfd09c1562445170489 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 8c4bca4afe785527c4a6a5f9c90a8b45f771d0a23129b11978149be3907f068f - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 2243c3eb0f20d0372a059976abbb527f0356a2af5374ddec660f4afde4fd8c18 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 3477498bca5713c492e0300335825197c7424136048816139d29c4d5847ff30f - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 3bf5904c8fdd4833e4d5247cd06544a5699cf8348a3ece8f9db21a68f63efe8e - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: b1613e259bff6fb0a13b432856dfbc0ab51d9e8608b7bc34981246adf7c17d22 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: b742ad8ff55722f3428539f7d957d1f41a34a90c25c0d765527cadf8fd974285 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 80becbcaf693e50dd11c338ec1a2107a762172123ab5e57e05d133789590871a - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: ff1807ff42192724aa2c8fe4f8b39c8b25bb74c417e35a5833eeef376f00ceb4 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: d7b068f28c69ab3b4fde7630548de2962ca9816732e5c2fff1595179c1445e70 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: a3f3d86946256c3fbdaa033eaae48235d292698bb54b5b0c75defa330e01cf73 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 239109c0c36b5dca9e5057b38910590cb408540b96a4855448a654ed43fb10f9 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 81d2589c2612d0dfa1b1037929c67e7376577aef43086044b992aff0f64da011 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 31d0e379178466371c3a79785282da000a4d2be42afba59548259017bf12b3ee - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 32a20a8779928ba7da61b696e1b814e786c19cac58a4a3dd7c85b7b3f2aac9a2 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 540ba242901ff0473866d95915ef5eb3a3e6ba611769e8a53dd128e63338caa3 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: a144b6496c1b86752e1f3a8afc74bacfcd426508bd9dee8e3dd26b247209c89a - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 14ce1ed063014609653753721ee1e8ee69ab57caa3f8ee14cf606bf60c4775b7 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: e6bc6c611befe028421f59a59cef48485a017ee213e69be9aaf81bad22419b9b - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 7445a9ab957a94b141b3e0eb0bbd03fcae53d13fa3a01529864e58d8ee4829d3 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 99ffb478e80db2076161d895fbc286126b38face7cbd1c1b09378b237dd264e2 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 6eb9ec7fa76f9aecc548a2f8a7b0f5078aad73c9982f837527bcbc4751fc5945 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 6866657e56c82aafd7b96fb889b1d911bac5b5785dd33572764d78060cc31d81 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 9121ba7be9995be56c33c144fd2d3554c142eeb7c47a31216da7f4bfbeb35437 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 0deaec92fc3dc843b8d66680f3a08a578f723bdc155a0dd5bdd0a5aa194c85ad - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 0a0f8fbad74c2f05979f2bd1d697c73b344e587e80eb60d731c3520230d086b4 - Source record ↗ · Retrieved
SHA-256: 249e7e6eabd2bb34c95a912a6eec9a042feea6334a951abdc667743196be6ec9
Forecast scorecard
Forecast performance record · Pre-Weekend · context-ridge-v2
0 evaluated races.
No completed sample is available for this stage and model version.
Detailed evaluation & conventions ↗Stored probability and interval outputs
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expected-position MAE | Unavailable |
| Projected-rank MAE (separate) | Unavailable |
| Winner multiclass Brier | Unavailable |
| Winner log loss | Unavailable |
| Podium binary Brier | Unavailable |
| Podium binary log loss | Unavailable |
| 10–90% interval coverage | Unavailable |
| Interval width (positions) | Unavailable |
Podium reliability counts
These fixed bins are a descriptive summary. Sparse bins and lower probability scores do not establish calibration.
| Probability bin | Count | Mean forecast | Observed share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–20% (upper exclusive) | 0 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| 20–40% (upper exclusive) | 0 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| 40–60% (upper exclusive) | 0 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| 60–80% (upper exclusive) | 0 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| 80–100% | 0 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Classification revisions
A corrected classification adds a new evaluation linked to its predecessor. The original forecast and earlier score remain available. Only the current final or corrected revision enters the scorecard.
Prospective evaluation records (0)
No evaluation records in this category.
Retrospective / backtest evaluation records (0)
No evaluation records in this category.
Unknown provenance evaluation records (2)
- Mexico City Grand Prix · pre-weekend · context-ridge-v2
corrected classification · current revision · Starter field differs from the issued universe; no renormalization or partial score.
Evaluation eb1f0b8e-430f-5135-a5e7-be113553bc05 · classification cc20457d-d275-5026-a2c9-e19096e4da93
Previous evaluation revision - Mexico City Grand Prix · pre-weekend · context-ridge-v2
final classification · superseded revision · Starter field differs from the issued universe; no renormalization or partial score.
Evaluation bf498775-5cfa-5f7e-a16c-d24cdf12a5aa · classification 22dcb17f-7a1a-5cd9-bb5b-8f5e2d69d4c3
Metric and publication conventions
Expected-position MAE averages the absolute difference between each stored mean finish and official position, first within a race and then equally across races. Projected-rank error scores the ordering separately. Ties in expected finish use stable driver IDs.
Winner Brier is the sum of (p − y)² over the issued race outcome universe, averaged across races. Winner log loss uses the issued probability of the actual winner. The evaluation-only clipping floor is 0.000001; it never changes a published probability. Podium Brier and log loss are binary scores, averaged across drivers within each race and then across races.
Position intervals include both endpoints. Coverage is the fraction containing the official position; width is upper minus lower position. Discrete 10–90% quantiles need not have exactly 80% coverage. Retirements and disqualifications retain the provider’s official classification order for position error. Disqualified drivers cannot count as winners or podium finishers. Nonstarters, withdrawals and DNQs are excluded from the starter target. If the resulting field differs from the issued universe, the race is unavailable for aggregate evaluation; probabilities are never silently renormalized.
Legacy snapshots use recent form as the pre-weekend baseline and starting grid at grid-confirmed. Cumulative snapshots use a frozen-prior baseline: the original pre-weekend prior, or the historical prior initialized for that issue when no earlier issued snapshot matches the field. This baseline receives no weekend likelihood updates and shares the model snapshot’s issue time, input cutoff and entrant universe. Missing baseline evidence is unavailable, never a zero error. One latest eligible forecast per event, stage and model version enters each scorecard; provisional classifications do not count as completed races.
Historical comparisons use chronological training and validation. The previously reported 18-race block has already been inspected and is not a fresh holdout. New candidates remain separate from the live record; no retuning or sharpening is implied by this page.