Model projections · Fan picks

Race predictions.

Explore the projected finishing order and pick your winner.

United States Grand Prix · Race date Oct 25, 2026, 08:00 PM UTC.

Model forecast · Pre Weekend

Projected finishing order

All 22 drivers, ordered by expected finish. Win and podium chances are estimates.

Pre Weekend projected finishing order for United States Grand Prix
Rank	Driver	Expected finish	Win	Podium	10–90% position interval	Distribution
01	Max Verstappen	4.31	19.0%	49.3%	1–9	Each finishing position P1: 19.0% P2: 16.2% P3: 14.2% P4: 11.4% P5: 9.3% P6: 8.4% P7: 6.2% P8: 4.6% P9: 3.9% P10: 2.5% P11: 1.8% P12: 0.9% P13: 0.7% P14: 0.5% P15: 0.3% P16: 0.2% P17: 0.0% P18: 0.0% P19: 0.0% P20: 0.0% P21: 0.0% P22: 0.0%
02	Andrea Kimi Antonelli	4.69	15.2%	43.9%	1–9	Each finishing position P1: 15.2% P2: 15.5% P3: 13.3% P4: 11.8% P5: 10.4% P6: 8.1% P7: 6.7% P8: 5.6% P9: 4.7% P10: 3.0% P11: 2.3% P12: 1.2% P13: 1.0% P14: 0.7% P15: 0.2% P16: 0.2% P17: 0.1% P18: 0.0% P19: 0.0% P20: 0.0% P21: 0.0% P22: 0.0%
03	Isack Hadjar	7.03	8.1%	26.0%	2–13	Each finishing position P1: 8.1% P2: 8.8% P3: 9.1% P4: 7.6% P5: 8.2% P6: 7.7% P7: 7.8% P8: 7.3% P9: 6.7% P10: 6.3% P11: 5.5% P12: 4.4% P13: 3.8% P14: 3.1% P15: 2.2% P16: 1.4% P17: 1.1% P18: 0.6% P19: 0.3% P20: 0.1% P21: 0.0% P22: 0.0%
04	Oscar Piastri	7.99	6.0%	19.9%	2–14	Each finishing position P1: 6.0% P2: 6.6% P3: 7.3% P4: 6.7% P5: 6.8% P6: 7.6% P7: 8.2% P8: 7.6% P9: 7.0% P10: 6.2% P11: 6.3% P12: 5.7% P13: 4.6% P14: 4.2% P15: 2.8% P16: 2.6% P17: 1.6% P18: 1.1% P19: 0.8% P20: 0.1% P21: 0.1% P22: 0.0%
05	Charles Leclerc	8.02	6.9%	20.3%	2–14	Each finishing position P1: 6.9% P2: 6.6% P3: 6.8% P4: 6.8% P5: 7.3% P6: 6.9% P7: 7.3% P8: 7.1% P9: 6.3% P10: 6.3% P11: 6.8% P12: 5.7% P13: 5.4% P14: 3.9% P15: 3.7% P16: 2.4% P17: 1.5% P18: 1.1% P19: 0.6% P20: 0.4% P21: 0.1% P22: 0.0%
06	George Russell	8.19	6.1%	19.6%	2–15	Each finishing position P1: 6.1% P2: 6.1% P3: 7.4% P4: 6.8% P5: 6.9% P6: 6.7% P7: 6.7% P8: 7.0% P9: 7.4% P10: 7.2% P11: 5.8% P12: 5.9% P13: 5.4% P14: 4.5% P15: 3.1% P16: 2.7% P17: 2.1% P18: 1.2% P19: 0.5% P20: 0.3% P21: 0.2% P22: 0.0%
07	Lando Norris	8.42	5.2%	17.5%	2–15	Each finishing position P1: 5.2% P2: 6.3% P3: 6.0% P4: 7.0% P5: 7.2% P6: 7.1% P7: 7.4% P8: 6.3% P9: 6.9% P10: 6.9% P11: 6.1% P12: 5.9% P13: 5.1% P14: 4.8% P15: 4.2% P16: 2.7% P17: 1.9% P18: 1.6% P19: 0.8% P20: 0.6% P21: 0.0% P22: 0.0%
08	Lewis Hamilton	9.24	4.7%	14.6%	3–16	Each finishing position P1: 4.7% P2: 5.1% P3: 4.8% P4: 5.6% P5: 5.8% P6: 6.2% P7: 6.5% P8: 6.7% P9: 6.6% P10: 7.2% P11: 6.9% P12: 6.5% P13: 6.2% P14: 4.8% P15: 4.8% P16: 3.9% P17: 2.8% P18: 2.6% P19: 1.5% P20: 0.4% P21: 0.3% P22: 0.1%
09	Liam Lawson	9.55	4.5%	13.8%	3–16	Each finishing position P1: 4.5% P2: 4.8% P3: 4.5% P4: 5.2% P5: 5.9% P6: 6.1% P7: 6.2% P8: 6.1% P9: 6.5% P10: 7.0% P11: 5.7% P12: 6.4% P13: 6.4% P14: 6.1% P15: 4.9% P16: 4.6% P17: 3.6% P18: 2.9% P19: 1.4% P20: 0.8% P21: 0.2% P22: 0.2%
10	Arvid Lindblad	10.03	4.3%	12.4%	3–17	Each finishing position P1: 4.3% P2: 3.8% P3: 4.3% P4: 5.3% P5: 5.3% P6: 5.9% P7: 5.3% P8: 5.6% P9: 6.5% P10: 5.9% P11: 6.3% P12: 6.4% P13: 6.6% P14: 6.5% P15: 5.6% P16: 4.6% P17: 4.3% P18: 3.2% P19: 2.2% P20: 1.4% P21: 0.6% P22: 0.1%
11	Nico Hülkenberg	10.66	3.7%	11.5%	3–18	Each finishing position P1: 3.7% P2: 3.9% P3: 3.9% P4: 4.2% P5: 4.1% P6: 5.2% P7: 5.7% P8: 6.0% P9: 5.5% P10: 5.8% P11: 5.7% P12: 6.0% P13: 6.0% P14: 6.1% P15: 6.9% P16: 6.1% P17: 4.8% P18: 4.0% P19: 3.1% P20: 1.8% P21: 1.1% P22: 0.3%
12	Esteban Ocon	12.72	2.2%	6.7%	4–19	Each finishing position P1: 2.2% P2: 2.1% P3: 2.4% P4: 3.4% P5: 3.6% P6: 3.4% P7: 3.4% P8: 3.9% P9: 3.9% P10: 4.4% P11: 5.3% P12: 5.5% P13: 6.4% P14: 6.2% P15: 6.6% P16: 7.0% P17: 7.4% P18: 6.8% P19: 6.5% P20: 4.8% P21: 3.1% P22: 1.4%
13	Pierre Gasly	12.73	2.4%	7.0%	5–20	Each finishing position P1: 2.4% P2: 2.2% P3: 2.5% P4: 2.9% P5: 3.4% P6: 3.6% P7: 3.5% P8: 4.1% P9: 4.6% P10: 4.3% P11: 5.0% P12: 5.4% P13: 6.0% P14: 6.4% P15: 6.6% P16: 7.2% P17: 7.4% P18: 6.9% P19: 5.6% P20: 5.2% P21: 3.2% P22: 1.8%
14	Oliver Bearman	13.07	2.2%	6.8%	5–20	Each finishing position P1: 2.2% P2: 1.8% P3: 2.8% P4: 3.0% P5: 2.6% P6: 2.9% P7: 3.2% P8: 4.1% P9: 3.7% P10: 4.4% P11: 5.4% P12: 5.5% P13: 5.7% P14: 6.1% P15: 7.3% P16: 6.7% P17: 7.6% P18: 7.8% P19: 6.3% P20: 5.3% P21: 3.9% P22: 1.8%
15	Franco Colapinto	13.25	1.9%	5.9%	5–20	Each finishing position P1: 1.9% P2: 2.0% P3: 1.9% P4: 2.5% P5: 2.9% P6: 3.0% P7: 3.2% P8: 3.4% P9: 4.2% P10: 4.6% P11: 4.5% P12: 6.1% P13: 5.8% P14: 6.0% P15: 6.7% P16: 7.3% P17: 8.3% P18: 7.8% P19: 6.3% P20: 5.6% P21: 4.0% P22: 1.8%
16	Carlos Sainz	14.24	1.5%	5.1%	6–21	Each finishing position P1: 1.5% P2: 1.6% P3: 2.0% P4: 2.2% P5: 2.3% P6: 2.6% P7: 2.7% P8: 3.1% P9: 3.2% P10: 3.8% P11: 4.1% P12: 4.5% P13: 4.9% P14: 5.3% P15: 6.3% P16: 7.1% P17: 7.9% P18: 7.5% P19: 9.1% P20: 8.0% P21: 6.2% P22: 4.0%
17	Gabriel Bortoleto	14.96	1.8%	5.2%	6–21	Each finishing position P1: 1.8% P2: 1.9% P3: 1.6% P4: 1.5% P5: 1.9% P6: 2.2% P7: 2.4% P8: 2.6% P9: 3.1% P10: 2.6% P11: 3.8% P12: 3.8% P13: 4.0% P14: 5.2% P15: 5.7% P16: 6.7% P17: 6.9% P18: 8.9% P19: 9.2% P20: 8.8% P21: 8.4% P22: 7.1%
18	Fernando Alonso	15.68	1.2%	4.0%	7–21	Each finishing position P1: 1.2% P2: 1.0% P3: 1.7% P4: 1.5% P5: 1.7% P6: 1.6% P7: 2.1% P8: 2.0% P9: 2.6% P10: 2.7% P11: 3.2% P12: 3.5% P13: 4.3% P14: 5.1% P15: 4.9% P16: 6.5% P17: 6.6% P18: 7.6% P19: 9.1% P20: 11.3% P21: 10.0% P22: 9.7%
19	Sergio Pérez	16.49	0.9%	3.1%	8–22	Each finishing position P1: 0.9% P2: 1.1% P3: 1.1% P4: 1.1% P5: 1.3% P6: 1.4% P7: 1.2% P8: 2.0% P9: 2.0% P10: 2.4% P11: 2.6% P12: 3.0% P13: 3.9% P14: 4.5% P15: 5.2% P16: 5.7% P17: 5.9% P18: 7.2% P19: 10.0% P20: 11.5% P21: 13.5% P22: 12.6%
20	Alexander Albon	17.05	0.7%	2.4%	9–22	Each finishing position P1: 0.7% P2: 1.0% P3: 0.7% P4: 1.2% P5: 1.1% P6: 1.0% P7: 1.6% P8: 1.9% P9: 1.6% P10: 2.2% P11: 2.4% P12: 2.8% P13: 2.6% P14: 3.7% P15: 4.1% P16: 5.3% P17: 6.0% P18: 7.1% P19: 9.2% P20: 11.7% P21: 13.9% P22: 18.1%
21	Valtteri Bottas	17.23	0.8%	2.4%	9–22	Each finishing position P1: 0.8% P2: 0.7% P3: 1.0% P4: 1.1% P5: 0.9% P6: 1.2% P7: 1.4% P8: 1.7% P9: 1.7% P10: 2.3% P11: 2.1% P12: 2.5% P13: 2.7% P14: 3.2% P15: 3.9% P16: 5.2% P17: 6.3% P18: 6.5% P19: 8.9% P20: 11.3% P21: 15.5% P22: 19.1%
22	Lance Stroll	17.44	0.7%	2.5%	10–22	Each finishing position P1: 0.7% P2: 1.0% P3: 0.8% P4: 1.2% P5: 1.0% P6: 1.0% P7: 1.0% P8: 1.5% P9: 1.6% P10: 2.0% P11: 2.4% P12: 2.2% P13: 2.5% P14: 3.2% P15: 4.1% P16: 3.9% P17: 5.7% P18: 7.5% P19: 8.5% P20: 10.6% P21: 15.6% P22: 21.9%

Expected finish is the average modeled position.

Based on the provisional race field.

Forecast performance ↗

Fan picks

Who will win?

0 picks · Pre Weekend

Be the first to pick a winner.

Pick your winner ↗

Voting closes Oct 23, 2026, 05:25 PM UTC

Position ranges span the model’s 10th to 90th percentile. Read the methodology ↗

Forecast history

Model and crowd ranking views