Published forecasts · inspectable evidence

What the forecast record shows.

Each forecast retains its original publication provenance and timestamps. Scorecards use stage and model-specific samples with the applicable scoring eligibility.

Immutable forecast version

Published forecast version

Prospective publication · 5cf9b657-960d-5ebd-b7fd-3fe1f61a3a17

Model / features: context-ridge-v2 / context-ridge-v2
Stage: pre-weekend
Generated: Nov 4, 2026, 09:15 AM UTC
Input cutoff: Nov 4, 2026, 09:15 AM UTC
Published: Nov 4, 2026, 09:15 AM UTC
Declared field: 22 drivers; preserved when later entrants change.
Model artifact: context-ridge-v2-932d4d6f72fd3b8e
Starting information: Starting grid unavailable

View the originally issued field and outputs ↗

Issued notice & limitations

Published before first practice using the sourced provisional event field. Event substitutions remain possible; changed fields replace the ballot window. The learned model is selected by the recorded evaluation.

Historical prior before the first practice; no target-weekend session outcome is used.

Issued weekend evidence

Issued finishing-position probabilities

Original probability for each driver at every finishing position
Driver	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	P6	P7	P8	P9	P10	P11	P12	P13	P14	P15	P16	P17	P18	P19	P20	P21	P22
Andrea Kimi Antonelli	16.9%	16.6%	14.1%	13.4%	10.8%	8.9%	7.0%	5.7%	3.3%	1.8%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Max Verstappen	16.6%	15.0%	14.2%	12.0%	11.2%	9.8%	7.3%	5.7%	3.8%	2.4%	1.2%	0.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
George Russell	12.1%	11.9%	12.2%	10.5%	11.5%	10.2%	9.4%	7.5%	6.6%	3.9%	2.1%	1.0%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Lewis Hamilton	11.1%	10.7%	10.8%	12.0%	11.1%	11.0%	9.8%	8.2%	5.8%	4.6%	2.8%	1.5%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Charles Leclerc	10.5%	9.7%	10.4%	10.8%	10.4%	11.0%	8.7%	8.7%	7.4%	5.4%	3.1%	2.0%	1.1%	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Lando Norris	8.9%	9.8%	9.4%	10.1%	10.6%	10.2%	10.0%	8.5%	8.3%	6.3%	3.6%	2.3%	1.1%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Oscar Piastri	6.0%	6.7%	7.8%	7.2%	8.2%	9.0%	10.4%	10.1%	9.4%	8.9%	6.5%	3.9%	3.0%	1.7%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Isack Hadjar	5.6%	6.7%	6.3%	7.1%	7.7%	8.0%	9.1%	9.2%	9.8%	9.5%	8.3%	6.0%	2.7%	2.2%	1.0%	0.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Liam Lawson	2.2%	2.3%	3.0%	3.0%	3.6%	4.1%	4.8%	7.1%	7.6%	9.2%	10.7%	10.1%	9.2%	7.7%	6.6%	4.2%	2.6%	1.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Pierre Gasly	2.3%	2.2%	2.2%	3.4%	3.6%	3.9%	5.4%	6.3%	7.2%	9.0%	9.8%	10.6%	9.9%	8.3%	6.5%	4.4%	2.7%	1.4%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
Arvid Lindblad	1.7%	2.0%	2.1%	2.4%	2.5%	3.2%	4.2%	5.1%	6.3%	8.2%	9.9%	10.6%	9.1%	9.8%	7.9%	6.0%	4.5%	2.5%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%
Nico Hülkenberg	0.9%	1.1%	1.4%	1.2%	1.5%	1.6%	2.4%	2.9%	3.9%	4.9%	6.2%	8.0%	9.2%	8.9%	8.8%	9.5%	8.3%	7.7%	5.9%	3.4%	1.9%	0.3%
Franco Colapinto	1.0%	1.0%	0.9%	0.9%	1.2%	1.8%	1.7%	2.9%	3.5%	4.9%	6.4%	7.7%	9.3%	9.7%	9.5%	9.5%	9.3%	8.1%	5.5%	3.2%	1.6%	0.4%
Gabriel Bortoleto	1.0%	1.0%	1.2%	1.3%	1.5%	1.4%	1.8%	2.3%	3.3%	3.7%	5.8%	6.3%	7.8%	8.7%	9.6%	10.0%	9.0%	8.2%	7.4%	5.1%	2.8%	0.8%
Oliver Bearman	0.7%	0.7%	0.8%	1.1%	1.3%	1.4%	2.0%	2.1%	2.9%	4.0%	4.6%	6.7%	7.1%	8.3%	9.6%	10.3%	10.7%	8.7%	7.6%	5.4%	3.1%	0.8%
Esteban Ocon	0.7%	0.8%	0.8%	1.0%	0.9%	1.2%	1.6%	2.1%	3.5%	4.0%	5.1%	5.8%	7.1%	8.3%	8.8%	10.0%	9.6%	9.3%	8.9%	6.5%	3.2%	0.9%
Carlos Sainz	0.6%	0.7%	0.6%	0.7%	0.9%	1.0%	1.2%	1.9%	2.9%	3.1%	3.7%	5.0%	6.5%	7.4%	8.1%	8.7%	10.0%	11.2%	9.9%	8.5%	5.5%	2.0%
Fernando Alonso	0.4%	0.3%	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%	0.4%	0.9%	1.2%	1.4%	2.0%	2.6%	3.7%	4.5%	4.5%	6.6%	6.8%	8.6%	9.7%	11.7%	13.0%	12.2%	8.0%
Alexander Albon	0.2%	0.3%	0.4%	0.5%	0.4%	0.7%	0.8%	0.7%	1.1%	1.5%	2.3%	3.0%	4.1%	4.6%	4.8%	6.6%	8.5%	9.6%	12.1%	13.9%	13.6%	10.3%
Lance Stroll	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%	0.5%	0.6%	0.6%	0.9%	1.0%	1.8%	2.0%	2.5%	3.5%	3.8%	5.0%	5.6%	8.0%	10.0%	14.1%	18.0%	20.8%
Sergio Pérez	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	0.5%	0.6%	0.8%	0.9%	1.5%	1.7%	2.3%	2.8%	3.7%	4.8%	5.7%	7.8%	10.6%	13.9%	19.5%	21.3%
Valtteri Bottas	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%	0.7%	0.8%	1.4%	2.3%	2.2%	3.2%	3.3%	4.5%	6.4%	7.8%	12.2%	18.2%	34.4%

Input sources and hashes

Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 899d41b1698d24346c948cfa34b5a6ca6878cdbb5fdcea807c9a55d32bb8f95e
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 0789638d66cdd9b472d7e0126e471b9ef1ab1a362409b213079b99cee9777fa3
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:20 AM UTC
SHA-256: 834044fb28b5a62b325a4111cadeeb3397009de35dbcd253d398b454feded7fd
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 215f61501963c457a1268188d5be46837e44bfe1c1df289263ffa24602cd98a6
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 2406406a13544c3ba437cb79fd7c2b2f053247b8c32eaaed5404f88be46aac05
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 5d450cff3ce11b99f00a2463b00283af7d7eb4d14adfdc5453f7e08772a4d40c
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Nov 1, 2026, 08:23 PM UTC
SHA-256: 0a7ccb6a6726a4a84421d15aa64bac2f96b0660f12d1b66c7762cf648ca08208
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: e8b16f61dffe973465d5c046772a43fd654cf0ec0348fbbfa12d21ac1f754a56
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:20 AM UTC
SHA-256: 81b3ef7538aa41119caac98eb47d8855ea2b69f5a40852588105e50205656a05
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: ccda0a67db44d2134adca9f307cbce91a9d0ab3876120945454060fd8bb901db
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 284849358c73ba8197d881a8eb3556a20506e0fb36912a17315698433c0170f5
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 7856d4fd54d5947f21bc8fd857e501306b4bf68e3291c7cad291bf4a4f898791
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:20 AM UTC
SHA-256: 90e8f7b391f1c568fc2292aa79003e513e7d600cad5dc2d0299ed48748c985a7
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 0bfe0d0b54beb2a4e9eaf358be1aea099edb38ca136deca6840db35522c2d2d5
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 0a36ae883936c27d09f5733f3d9c93707698f8daf846d80f848d7b4e408b3970
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 5b15dc5e07c0d088fa4ad12ceb9a808bc4819ae727ba2476ee4d4c5baab92df0
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 8898f650a85768dc44fd3bb6944bc5510c548f291f9e302a59f8264bad18524b
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:20 AM UTC
SHA-256: 558ce12410dfc30b17bfe9c9f28a336f9e9577a31f18e94b146e3cefb5b2d23f
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: f5752f5b3643fd8ef866b87db06d8f8856a925609c1b5c0e0f3b06b8649e6b12
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: ed234772a3f78314be7de0f7171de1f79a8b28ab7ec282ecfac1be62e2f2f3c7
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 74ea82a7f2f7c931f9e30c94e3057555d6fff081c6f42c83fdd15b07bcd55f03
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 6965bccc6cde9e412d9c631e44ce9b38eab073b314f90c204388800588b3f863
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:20 AM UTC
SHA-256: e4947871b24941157f8eddc2c64c44d26c1bf4c44d2e66e13732ae869c70329c
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: e31e50ef99bc380444fb813f4724ab96fee4dbbf015d78d922204edab7c254c4
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: ee7475e5b15816c2d0b1fd040d152a4265fa01fd4274d645d3b8c8248e4d23ec
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: d415cd5f18514ec8c26b4846e44093bf8ca4768f2215510382d273f3f87e83b5
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: d4badf468955b85b95b3852b972120c5577e9b665d23f5c6a3f03136b85a4022
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: d71a13afd2e953983250b50e1d59063f02a2e0cf1cc6f7ea59bd29dd801dc7eb
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 282a4713ba44c235853ca13db475186353800131f06cda282a6ecc752a9c9b8a
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 717ad7d6df31ed7a32279152abf773cc3ec7b73dc12623795fa655ad9878104e
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: a5cef386dab8cedce4b5049dbab5426983b4d5678f9f42ef8482137f1578bf06
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: fe70a284c27b53f4cf7cae768fc0c854fad9b949e5f8462090d7b9165668e746
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: bba749e51498e2ecd64cc0686b716df0327f7288d9bb747e7f02570045fffb3c
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:20 AM UTC
SHA-256: 6fd883716f9fededecb67b33449798e55cdce445613d7f6503ade1c69c00427a
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 7bd675955ed8b2a163bf202a639a8daab3480cd111e12f7ef98ef6b2660ca529
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: bf0e5190ad6cfcc2dfc1f356326203f7700a9d995f9175bba90348923b6f4531
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 0b408f377119f31052aab56963533f8ecee1ec4f8194c6d602f5ba44f94eb836
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 4a5eecd335c47c085802f276f692966369e89acf5493bbeeb3adf55bd0db72eb
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 55b8d4b73589c2d6288a1388e0d65525a22e581ac1f4cd2585facf9f073ac9dc
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 26e294de8696cc6f2e92307dbbc993a41719ca86cb61a3494f624fd75d609658
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 028411cd878e6b086393e3773df36f98c9be7dc9be07727408a8e062b36f9616
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 8c9765db38b6fd9ad6a7a8dd9eeeec754863dbb0930df66c42bf8c19aa7fe076
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 4fa4cf971b0c7aa71ae50e712df8826a9c89d1fb51ca785bc5b5abac9e9a0a24
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 1c253042c7d0e598dd228ee00fdb4d070a6f428116e2d9470ed49db863753928
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 60207cb2f2670a12abe17a25cbaa029ed3ac87dd4aa1b1934c7b1ffef9d5cd4e
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 75a5042327460a02cdd864cc99483f689cf48c425f803bd082307424398d2d39
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:20 AM UTC
SHA-256: aa7b518171ad2120d902f9af198309be1f810082a98b8d0799b52e9a59f56583
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:20 AM UTC
SHA-256: af4bb28ac388ef520f1076b7b327965a0404dfe54b16ac4efe1c40a3f5469e27
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 17e61f7639d4914bda74b99a1777596221358763b77c6b199c8b6d15fdf4225c
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 1cc54e2714ce1943d3b26046c093d9425df94484004864d907efc87abbfce880
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: b14c410aef5b620f79c78536ab1340b6d8fb39d0d7124785d034fce97177881d
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: e16b4e0c4c344cf7cf8059ddcad26c258a435b2d9b9e89894c4bed948814616f
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: c7f6345eef8dc7033e497c27842fa4c960d0abc05a66b7c81a49518a0ca46bf3
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Nov 2, 2026, 09:00 PM UTC
SHA-256: b3ee15c53b5ed8101bd69f01c650036ac034f53224d2be54ed2250f384a7e049
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 08e33404594bb2f151290567d15df628178391abf113394142932dc2cba45fcf
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 94a3f543f28811ebe96ddf7c56708497de534b871365c933b17936196744edf3
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 82fe0fdc9d0f1da7a4edf8aaeeda578bad546bbe399332e6137d370bbd30511c
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 7eba52f8701899e09ecbb240893c7b368a03f699c30e4b3fb36971d19ed1829c
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:20 AM UTC
SHA-256: a152a4b1297671bc9915cf9749db0063837a87aa66d90f1970664f98290e8492
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 5007b69deccc79562e2298c451841508ffe8e0b44f2e418f78adc12916bded66
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: efe38ee3aba0747b30df76c9399eb365404bb59bf62b115c497814584a782e46
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 8bbd0da6cae0a0bc7f8d2fd0354b4c9664b7632e4c0f3beba3ebb1857e0f6680
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: b97eca9335afc32f68246519a15b997aa897599dff9d255ce82eb84be42066fd
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 37fc473deaa77a9e590a419579365b4e343f7a24f15a5291f3f982117e391a2d
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 9963e95a60ea4235fe9896124a96e119ddb19a31a6a389852afeec314d6c06ac
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 3e589804e958f8e6d242c79a0026bd0f050193362efbe8956f65e60da34f3bfb
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 99507c9414ed70412a98c7104de831774621ae4659e7c45cfd2dc9e41cc8d031
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: f41ccc5b037d1fca4dcb307eef191586c4e85b49adfc65528eb2985fde5687a1
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 1f81a83b3913b5f8ab4a7670eb56acd6df29026a8d7d643befdc188f4abb4b41
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Nov 1, 2026, 11:30 PM UTC
SHA-256: be0cddc82243dd179571bdb86027e0fd1fc44d2e5fc86fc06dffd2ff90a99d24
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 1ebf36e33727d5b2030aa6dea98e3a2e60af128389fa616c298f245dda423f28
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 7fc1272996f85e663fb3a16ec711f0262c7f8747f22fc743a1f4d697c2cfc4a2
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 53b7646ffc2e0a6030618b624303d4b36cf02fb7d39e14b7d343caaf5be94592
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 1c3bc65ed46164498dc24e7f5a67024f18b8034905c1d492d3f44defad95e9ba
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: e85eb0da7b64126cd1b47ca814640ea2a2f13ffe416606097225caabb8b37ca4
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 5e01076d171dbcbf3d9e48fd92141dbf84403e347051e01d300367bebdd80ad1
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 25, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC
SHA-256: 3ac801783a788121b6709d2f2b004dbf5e546cfbb71659bd23e63a3a53bd651c
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 7d830d424e76a15a02a9e6c6494d55f0559c7f74f6576ef6b50746f96c1d20dc
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: dde237dcd942df17e41a4cbe5c302a87472c4d96b5d0bd54cb535852ffb58724
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: abe264c4f485e2142e8e9aed1e310ab33cffc2db92f11f97bcf20ea7fdbe3ee9
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 3f4f3f1e3425c3f184307481cbf534e1dc4e51b5fd67c2e95a1759b8409be7f8
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 914cb5158609cbdfb218522e40bfd8466c553c5095775caf66ff55d5df0e1011
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 25, 2026, 06:00 PM UTC
SHA-256: 0ee91d0d35cfb526e7e1b2abf31e4c9a4a7dc952eabd9073c056071812eaa28a
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 96605872dd21c80939a5736432505cba116afe8810f432ba3fadaa27a6b75c43
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 8502f21243d6fa02ea3dca1eb6857629d668ad838149119eb532e105a0bf3155
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 9605a87d9c7f134622159f4e7904e42083a2f48782e41b40c860754c1ae426c3
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:20 AM UTC
SHA-256: feb61361422caa005c9f7078968c9a1e936a58f3c76d0aa69d587fdab694dcda
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:15 AM UTC
SHA-256: 698bf564ddd910c813ef42589b4635e5fc81dd16a1b2e743a86020e008cd14b8
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: e5f4c56528be47a2702074a015d661dc0436f67c2790f8b053b3fd0395d0ff1f
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 046d6aef97b9bd452a3a1f3fc01b49f9f3b95ba247625ec94c78a796c497a126
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 18c30bb3f3bec0fae9b409dfb16c04448f4b320893b367bd47ce126332171856
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: c8e96ac9ee44fb3cfc6fd480d0cfdb5ee1ffc3381c6f0d02a105a9d3fa6ed668
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:20 AM UTC
SHA-256: 35f3e14597cec5f29ab77ca0b4da76adc5c17126794033626c00e17c07192840
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: c6f5fc42639295064628cc393157f2c01b85b60dd3db2138c3301463ce9bc4a1
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Nov 1, 2026, 11:30 PM UTC
SHA-256: f807578376b268c8216e0af10441041fad879c66ade4517a09f237a7d9cb66e3
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 84f43a407f1d7e7064749706b360a9fafe069cbeb81185d600daf0498a3628c3
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 6011edf120c112f387adfc657de5ab029965d7f15d3ea4c323bb20116aefb084
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 2fe6ed37f8f4e92cf3eddc3e410b53756bfed54edd999be9871298c600957e7b
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 56cee8c93320ec3a88a106e6100ad2428cca1984da340bee8678c80a26cfaa0f
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: cdef17f9b025de0c9adf3a4fb4b7c320764af0a61932c58510523c8b8257cb84
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 68faef13a47248be0f4a45fe37ace01db85440f60b3ea357dda92d8952f1fc29
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: c78b3efd2f8b0c9082f02c2c62cc92f23b855ccb0936ab64713755ff859d49ed
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 6574528ffbd065dce17f5d8921df9e762e8ee95722d5188ab3b2018d0b2dd8a8
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 7fdbba9a7491a82121df013e0a0430c4a11d461385b2e426eb88bfe7ecfae58b
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 0212f06004963a8998b9433c49ee75ae439c08ea97637efbc03723a4583245e2
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 2807e5cf1467e599083621aeb7e55ae83f3fc1c839d569646e9089239f4e12e7
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 3438d6e4b4fd301e7d2dcbfb600cbe9055e87c62781cefcc8aba46e597d9f94d
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:20 AM UTC
SHA-256: b409adcdad48a2df47e564b14335175ec7c3fabd7e997240312d6bacbca7f40f
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 6e7a9869264e1659e23f7c8472959b9c96924a5b14995d841cac6b99000d17e2
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: eef64dc12f685a0b154d15089f9c390f73dcc0b65a8146a2cb430e016349c7d5
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 3904f07fbebb12f41431283f38c102d68ad1e719156f0254305aabb31edf616b
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 59990428844cc3afaa809e4072f1d94944769eea49d70a9bb416800e39720122
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: a638c14442890492880fd34610c09f3c23b636821bbc9989ded6248800863325
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 02d3075e2ac63f565a4bbcc0d9b0e9e0a0e37fd5ae1820c3bb9e059bd4aa9e7f
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Nov 2, 2026, 03:36 AM UTC
SHA-256: c000bc892383c11d4d10efbcf4513b60ab556d0f64bdd81e1e64c6b7495e7d52
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: bfae3ad249a3302c9ed1fb7fcdc7ad9febc9d14c5372986a733eb2fb6b248d4b
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 13abe9ae2dc364b08b23326f5cc4bcd6a324da22e389bd8605ca4f2f8d7b669e
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 66a06b80785027d290094dd9972ce30c30155d0ecfe97790fe5d4c5a89f81963
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: f4a7f26d019cf40e3c94f9f17a119ff010cbce5c511eaff641529a479ed801fe
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: c81ddc93a75603c69bdf4d85565a7262ec803c610b86205b818df45dd1d0a0f4
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: cd88f6250c4e1b186fc903a1e30aff77cedf776994eb3f52c357b1f9bd22341c
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 998e37abbd5c7ee83bcaf2fab1c7b712944b6de2075d3e399a3569edf6cd1161
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 67f14c9fc833391a8e97d860243bbf5a44b25b408d2bdfdc8c95ef4e4b970284
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 0044ccacc1708d605f2d9de93dc883c694deed67ad9e64e7f1e91fa1c52e1e11
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 88872b88a2a31455bd2ccab3143ebef5f78b5a9aa5d1de41b4d63d93b3e3f60e
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: d09a4c92451a04d9d5fa6f71ef7c369cfd288aa6749b7bfd09c1562445170489
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 8c4bca4afe785527c4a6a5f9c90a8b45f771d0a23129b11978149be3907f068f
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 2243c3eb0f20d0372a059976abbb527f0356a2af5374ddec660f4afde4fd8c18
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 3bf5904c8fdd4833e4d5247cd06544a5699cf8348a3ece8f9db21a68f63efe8e
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: b1613e259bff6fb0a13b432856dfbc0ab51d9e8608b7bc34981246adf7c17d22
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: b742ad8ff55722f3428539f7d957d1f41a34a90c25c0d765527cadf8fd974285
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 80becbcaf693e50dd11c338ec1a2107a762172123ab5e57e05d133789590871a
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:20 AM UTC
SHA-256: ff1807ff42192724aa2c8fe4f8b39c8b25bb74c417e35a5833eeef376f00ceb4
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:20 AM UTC
SHA-256: d7b068f28c69ab3b4fde7630548de2962ca9816732e5c2fff1595179c1445e70
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: a3f3d86946256c3fbdaa033eaae48235d292698bb54b5b0c75defa330e01cf73
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 239109c0c36b5dca9e5057b38910590cb408540b96a4855448a654ed43fb10f9
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 81d2589c2612d0dfa1b1037929c67e7376577aef43086044b992aff0f64da011
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 31d0e379178466371c3a79785282da000a4d2be42afba59548259017bf12b3ee
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:17 AM UTC
SHA-256: 32a20a8779928ba7da61b696e1b814e786c19cac58a4a3dd7c85b7b3f2aac9a2
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: a144b6496c1b86752e1f3a8afc74bacfcd426508bd9dee8e3dd26b247209c89a
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:20 AM UTC
SHA-256: e6bc6c611befe028421f59a59cef48485a017ee213e69be9aaf81bad22419b9b
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 7445a9ab957a94b141b3e0eb0bbd03fcae53d13fa3a01529864e58d8ee4829d3
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 99ffb478e80db2076161d895fbc286126b38face7cbd1c1b09378b237dd264e2
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Nov 4, 2026, 09:15 AM UTC
SHA-256: 416712c20952e2f53af1aaf8fd38b93c953b06a16623d39670d2bb594b73767f
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 6eb9ec7fa76f9aecc548a2f8a7b0f5078aad73c9982f837527bcbc4751fc5945
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:20 AM UTC
SHA-256: 6866657e56c82aafd7b96fb889b1d911bac5b5785dd33572764d78060cc31d81
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 9121ba7be9995be56c33c144fd2d3554c142eeb7c47a31216da7f4bfbeb35437
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 0deaec92fc3dc843b8d66680f3a08a578f723bdc155a0dd5bdd0a5aa194c85ad
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 19, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC
SHA-256: 0a0f8fbad74c2f05979f2bd1d697c73b344e587e80eb60d731c3520230d086b4
Source record ↗ · Retrieved Oct 18, 2026, 07:16 AM UTC
SHA-256: 249e7e6eabd2bb34c95a912a6eec9a042feea6334a951abdc667743196be6ec9

Report an error in this record ↗

Forecast scorecard

Forecast performance record · Pre-Weekend · context-ridge-v2

0 evaluated races.

No completed sample is available for this stage and model version.

Detailed evaluation & conventions ↗

Pre-Weekend Post-Practice Post-Sprint Post-Qualifying Grid-confirmed

Stored probability and interval outputs

context-ridge-v2 · pre-weekend · 0 completed races
Metric	Value
Expected-position MAE	Unavailable
Projected-rank MAE (separate)	Unavailable
Winner multiclass Brier	Unavailable
Winner log loss	Unavailable
Podium binary Brier	Unavailable
Podium binary log loss	Unavailable
10–90% interval coverage	Unavailable
Interval width (positions)	Unavailable

Podium reliability counts

These fixed bins are a descriptive summary. Sparse bins and lower probability scores do not establish calibration.

Driver forecasts, grouped by issued podium probability
Probability bin	Mean forecast	Observed share
0–20% (upper exclusive)	Unavailable	Unavailable
20–40% (upper exclusive)	Unavailable	Unavailable
40–60% (upper exclusive)	Unavailable	Unavailable
60–80% (upper exclusive)	Unavailable	Unavailable
80–100%	Unavailable	Unavailable

Classification revisions

A corrected classification adds a new evaluation linked to its predecessor. The original forecast and earlier score remain available. Only the current final or corrected revision enters the scorecard.

Prospective evaluation records (0)

No evaluation records in this category.

Retrospective / backtest evaluation records (0)

No evaluation records in this category.

Unknown provenance evaluation records (0)

No evaluation records in this category.

Metric and publication conventions

Expected-position MAE averages the absolute difference between each stored mean finish and official position, first within a race and then equally across races. Projected-rank error scores the ordering separately. Ties in expected finish use stable driver IDs.

Winner Brier is the sum of (p − y)² over the issued race outcome universe, averaged across races. Winner log loss uses the issued probability of the actual winner. The evaluation-only clipping floor is 0.000001; it never changes a published probability. Podium Brier and log loss are binary scores, averaged across drivers within each race and then across races.

Position intervals include both endpoints. Coverage is the fraction containing the official position; width is upper minus lower position. Discrete 10–90% quantiles need not have exactly 80% coverage. Retirements and disqualifications retain the provider’s official classification order for position error. Disqualified drivers cannot count as winners or podium finishers. Nonstarters, withdrawals and DNQs are excluded from the starter target. If the resulting field differs from the issued universe, the race is unavailable for aggregate evaluation; probabilities are never silently renormalized.

Legacy snapshots use recent form as the pre-weekend baseline and starting grid at grid-confirmed. Cumulative snapshots use a frozen-prior baseline: the original pre-weekend prior, or the historical prior initialized for that issue when no earlier issued snapshot matches the field. This baseline receives no weekend likelihood updates and shares the model snapshot’s issue time, input cutoff and entrant universe. Missing baseline evidence is unavailable, never a zero error. One latest eligible forecast per event, stage and model version enters each scorecard; provisional classifications do not count as completed races.

Historical comparisons use chronological training and validation. The previously reported 18-race block has already been inspected and is not a fresh holdout. New candidates remain separate from the live record; no retuning or sharpening is implied by this page.

Model details · Report a factual or calculation error